A New Great Game? Emerging Strategic Realignments in and around Pakistan. Dr Shabir Choudhry, 28 December, London

 

A New Great Game? Emerging Strategic Realignments in and around Pakistan

Dr Shabir Choudhry, 28 December, London

Note: This article is based on information circulating in strategic and diplomatic circles. Some elements remain unverified. The purpose here is not to assert facts, but to analyse possible implications should these developments prove accurate.

Introduction

South and Central Asia appear to be entering yet another phase of the “Great Game,” this time involving not only regional powers but also global actors operating through proxies, covert arrangements, and strategic deployments. Recent reports—some classified, others semi-official—suggest a rapid reshaping of alliances and military footprints around Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, and China. If even partially accurate, these developments raise serious questions about Pakistan’s strategic environment, sovereignty, and future stability.

1. Israel, Afghan Relocation, and the Iran Factor

Reports indicate that Israel may be developing a secret settlement for selected Afghans—individuals who proved their loyalty to the United States during the Afghan war. If true, this would not be a humanitarian project but a strategic relocation, similar to previous proxy deployments seen in Cold War conflicts.

These Afghans are reportedly being used—or prepared for use—against Iran. Historically, displaced and ideologically primed groups have often been redeployed to destabilise neighbouring states. This raises concerns not only for Iran but for the wider region.

The reference to Fitna al-Khawarij is significant. The Prophet Muhammad ﷺ warned that such groups would emerge repeatedly violent, absolutist, and destructive, harming Muslims more than none-Muslims. If militant elements are being reorganised under new patrons, this is not a minor threat but a long-term destabilising force.

Implications:

• Increased pressure on Iran through indirect means
• Expansion of proxy warfare
• Further militarisation of sectarian and ideological conflicts
• Spillover risks for Pakistan and Central Asia

2. Bagram Airbase: India, Russia, and the Afghan Sky

In light of former President Trump’s repeated statements about the strategic importance of Bagram Airbase, reports suggest that India may now have operational control of the facility, with Russian and Indian experts installing air defence systems.

If correct, this would represent a dramatic shift in the balance of power in Afghanistan.

Key questions arise:

• Does this mean an end to US-style air strikes, or merely a transfer of aerial control?
• Will the Afghan Taliban tolerate such an arrangement?
• Can the TTP continue its operations inside Pakistan if Afghan airspace becomes monitored or restricted?
• More importantly, how will this affect Pakistan’s ability to hit targets inside Afghanistan by using its jet fighters?

For Pakistan, the most pressing concern is whether hostile elements operating from Afghan soil will continue to enjoy strategic depth.

3. CENTCOM, Pakistan, and US Troops in Balochistan

Perhaps the most consequential report concerns near-finalised discussions between CENTCOM and Pakistan, involving the deployment of 5,000 to 7,000 US troops in Balochistan.

The stated purpose: protection of US interests, particularly rare earth minerals, their extraction, and secure transportation.

This development has profound implications.

China currently dominates the global supply chain of rare earth elements—minerals essential for advanced technology, defence systems, and green energy. Any alternative source weakens China’s leverage.

Implications:

• Strategic challenge to China’s monopoly
• Increased US footprint in Pakistan
• Potential friction with Russia and Iran
• Pakistan is becoming a frontline state in great-power competition

A critical question follows:

Will China retaliate—politically, economically, or otherwise—to protect its interests?

4. China’s “Friendly Countries” List — Pakistan Missing

Recent reports claim that Pakistan is not included in China’s list of 20 “friendly countries.”

This omission is striking, especially given decades of rhetoric describing Sino-Pak relations as “higher than mountains and sweeter than honey.”

If accurate, it suggests:

• Growing Chinese distrust
• Disappointment over Pakistan’s strategic ambiguity
• Reassessment of long-term commitments, including CPEC

Symbolism matters in diplomacy, and exclusion often speaks louder than statements.

5. Technology Restrictions and Rare Minerals

Further straining relations is the reported Chinese ban on supplying Pakistan with:

• Technology required for rare mineral exploration
• Certain critical materials are necessary for extraction

This suggests China wants control, not competition, even from traditional partners.

Implications:

• Pakistan’s dependence deepens
• Strategic autonomy weakens
• Economic leverage shifts decisively toward Beijing
• 
  

6. Pakistan: A Strategic Encirclement?

When viewed geographically, the situation becomes alarming:

• South: Balochistan — US boots
• South-West: Chabahar (Iran) — Indian presence
• North-West: Afghanistan — Indian and Russian influence
• West: Iran — tense regional environment

Pakistan increasingly appears surrounded by competing powers, each pursuing its own agenda, often at Pakistan’s expense.

Conclusion: Is Pakistan Becoming a Battlefield?

The emerging picture suggests Pakistan risks becoming a battleground for competing global interests, much like Afghanistan was for decades.

History teaches us that:

• External powers extract value
• Local populations pay the price
• Sovereignty erodes gradually, not suddenly

Pakistan’s leadership must ask hard questions:

• Who defines national interest?
• How many “strategic partners” can a weak state afford?
• Can Pakistan balance China, the US, and regional rivals without becoming expendable?

Unless Pakistan adopts a clear, independent, and transparent foreign policy, it may once again find itself used—not respected—in another round of the Great Game.

Dr Shabir Choudhry is a London-based political analyst, author, and expert on South Asian affairs, with a focus on Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Kashmir.

Email: Drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com