THE GREAT NUMBER GAME
The credibility of census
post partition in Kashmir has always been suspect, with accusations of fudging.
Now leaders across ideological barriers are asking people to participate in the
2011 exercise creating hopes of a promising headcount. Will it be?
Separatism’s young
ideologue Shakeel A Bakhshi broke the ice in March, when he asked people to
ensure participation in 2011 census. Earlier separatists had called for
abstaining from the headcount exercise. Non-participation in the headcount, he
told a lawyers’ seminar helps them (read Delhi) “to claim that Muslims
constitute only 66 percent of J&K’s population”. He asked intelligentsia to
make people aware of the consequences of non-participation in the decadal
enumeration exercise and suggested those living in Chenab Valley, Poonch and
Rajouri to register as “Kashmiri speaking Muslims” because efforts are
“underway to prove Kashmiri speaking Muslims a minority.”
It seemed as if lot many
people were waiting for somebody to bell the cat. JKLF leader M Yasin Malik
picked up the queue and sought participation in the exercise starting May 15.
“There is no politics in it,” Malik said. “Last time, we had asked people to
stay away from the process but now we feel that it was not a wise decision.” He
said in 2001 census “people didn’t participate in the process and the actual
population couldn’t be established”.
It was the turn of
Kashmir’s most flamboyant political face Dr Farooq Abdullah who, on April 18,
asked people to ensure participation. “If we won’t register ourselves in the
census, we will face many problems. Above all, Muslims will be shown a minority
which is not true,” he said, “Hurriyat factions should also participate and
don’t let erode the reality that J&K is a Muslim majority state.”
Ailing, aged hawk Syed Ali
Shah Geelani being termed by many as “extreme reference point on Kashmir”
stamped the idea by not only asking Muslims to get registered but also
announced his plans to launch a ‘massive awareness programme’. He alleged that
the enumerators do not enlist the Muslims minorities in Jammu region.
This is enough for Farooq
Ahmad, J&K’s Chief Principal Census Officer to be happy. “Response to this
census will be high,” he said, adding “Everybody wants people to participate in
the exercise.” He is busy training and arranging 32000 enumerators, 4352
supervisors and 664 master trainers who would be deployed in 6650 villages, 85
statutory towns and 36 census towns across J&K’s 22 districts.
At least in this
assignment, Farooq seems to be lucky man. His predecessor Feroz Ahmad, serving
IRC post retirement, had to face many difficulties including some violence.
It was Prof Saif ud Din
Soz, now the Congress president in the state, who while addressing a jam packed
news conference in Srinagar in September 1999 alleged that census was aimed at
falsely lowering the number of Muslims in Kashmir to undermine the separatist
movement. “It is a conspiracy against Muslims and will add another dimension to
the strife,” he said. “This state has always been a Muslim-majority state, but
now I suspect that a lot of manoeuvring will take place (during the census).”
Apprehending the enumerators would count security forces deployed across
J&K to alter state demography, Soz had asked unionists and separatists to
unite and “take collective stand.”
While separatist
politicians issued statement against the census, the insurgents “contributed”
by throwing their hat into the crisis. Hizb ul Mujahideen was the first to call
for a boycott of the exercise. It threatened employees, who participate in the
exercise tasked to produce “doctored statistics”. Shadowy al-Fateh chipped in
by stating that the operation will not be able to offer the actual headcount as
“thousands of Kashmiri’s are displaced, dislocated, (have) migrated, (are)
jailed or (have) been forcibly taken away by the army.” There was a raid on a
government building by insurgents and the records were damaged. Twin trade
unions of the employees announced to stay away but eventually 22697 employees
were forced, in certain cases they were picked up in raids and asked to finish
their assignments first, to carry out the census. The exercise finally went on
incident (violence) free.
Census in J&K is not a
post-partition phenomenon. J&K boasts of the maiden census in 1873 though
the first professionally sound enumeration is believed to be that of 1911. The
operations continued after every decade, before and after the partition barring
two breaches.
In 1951, the first post-partition operation
was not carried out because of the “disturbed conditions” and in 1991 various
outfits issued threats and managed the postponement of the headcount.
But people unhappy with
the institution of census had their experiences ground in the 1981 operations
that triggered a major controversy. Even the government led by Dr Farooq
Abdullah rejected the outcome of the exercise saying it was biased against the
majority community (read Muslims). State legislature would witness heated
debates over the issue during 1983 and 1987.
At a function of Iqbal
Academy in honour of DD director Mazhar Imam on July 9, 1988, the then chief
minister Dr Farooq Abdullah said the Census figures are “patently manipulated”.
He said 2.8 percent growth in Muslim population against 3 percent of non-Muslims
was unbelievable.
The last pre-militancy
census (1981) put the J&K population at 59,87,389. Of them 52.36 percent
were living in Kashmir districts, 2.24 percent in Ladakh districts and the rest
of 45.39 percent in Jammu. It said Muslims form 64.19 percent of the total
population of the state, a decline in ratio that began after 1941 and continued
with every passing census operation (see table). In 1941 Muslims comprised
72.40 percent of the population.
This offered currency to
the ‘fudging theory’ that was already in circulation after central government’s
opposition to the ‘controversial’ Resettlement Act and strong reservations to
the Transfer of (land) Property Act (now amended) and complex State Subject
system (now neutralized fully). The May 1993 meeting between BJP leader L K
Advani and Shimon Peres, then Israeli Foreign Minister, in which he “favourably
responded” to Peres’s suggestion of “replication of demographic transformation
as Israel had done in Palestine, to change the composition of population in
Kashmir by settlement of non-Muslims there”, had reinforced the faith that
fudging had more to do with politics than numbers.
Though the central
government officially denied executing any such plan, the occasional
suggestions of rehabilitating ex-servicemen in the border areas created
suspicion among the people.
In fact China has started
ethnic flooding of Tibet. It is paying huge amounts to support the families who
are settling in Tibet. Pakistan is also accused of doing the same in Gilgit and
Baltistan. “This is a big game”, said a senior teacher in the University of
Kashmir. “We are on the decline as far the figures go and if new non-Muslim
settlers come, we will be in the minority one day and then Delhi will announce
that they are ready for the plebiscite,” he added.
Under tremendous pressure
from various sides, the state government finally managed a “special census” in
1987 through the Directorate of Census Operations. (The Registrar General &
Census Commissioner of India runs a full-fledged office, Directorate of Census
Operations, in the state. Its director, usually, is a senior state officer who
is sent on deputation. Though the staffers of the state government are doing
the actual enumeration, the directorate functions as the trainer, supplier of
the material, evaluates the data and is the custodian of the information.)
Though the Special Census
relied upon the projected population of Jammu tehsil and Ladakh region, it
failed to include statistics of 60 villages across the state, it did detect disparities
in 1981 census. The salient features of this exercise included:
In 1987 the total population of the state was 71,70,703 of whom 47,11,029 were Muslims and the rest non-Muslims – Hindus, Christians, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains and others.
In 1987 the total population of the state was 71,70,703 of whom 47,11,029 were Muslims and the rest non-Muslims – Hindus, Christians, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains and others.
While the 1981 census had
concluded that Muslims constituted 64.19 percent of the total population, the
1987 exercise put the figure at 65.70 percent.
Its evaluations did change
the percentage of Muslims in all the six districts of Kashmir valley. Muslims
were found to be forming 95.95 percent of Kashmir valley against 94.96 as was
recorded by 1981 census.
The percentage of Muslims
got decreased in the Muslim majority districts of Jammu province. These
included Doda, Udhampur, Jammu, Kuthua and Rajouri while in case of Poonch
district alone, the Muslim percentage marginally increased.
The 1981 census said 45.39 percent of the total population lives in Jammu region, 2.25 percent in the desert Ladakh region and the rest of 52.36 percent in Kashmir, the 1987 exercise put these figures at 43.90 percent, 2.19 percent and 53.91 percent, respectively.
The 1981 census said 45.39 percent of the total population lives in Jammu region, 2.25 percent in the desert Ladakh region and the rest of 52.36 percent in Kashmir, the 1987 exercise put these figures at 43.90 percent, 2.19 percent and 53.91 percent, respectively.
For the 1981-87 period, the percentage growth
rate was put at 19.76 for the whole the state, 15.83 for Jammu region, 23.31
for the Kashmir region and 16.65 for the Ladakh region. Muslims, according to
this headcount, had a percentage growth of 22.57 in this period.
Results of the Special
Census were not made public for reasons best known to the central and the state
governments. Officially, the Director Census Operations said the special census
had limited objective to identify the Scheduled Tribes in the state (and) the
government considered the report for the list that was out in 1990. Employees
in the Directorate, however, admit that 1987 census was a fact. “Since this was
an exercise aimed at identifying the STs so it was restricted to state subjects
alone, no outsiders, no security forces, so it reflected the ground realities
…”, said an official. The government never offered any answers to why it
skipped publishing the outcome of the Special Census and for not accepting the
mistakes in the earlier exercises. Unofficially, the workers in the census
office would admit the “frauds” (of 1981) they detected later.
Regardless of which
headcount was wrong and why, state’s demography did witness a series of
upheavals after 1941, the last census carried out by Cpt R G Wreford, the then
Census Commissioner of (undivided) J&K. Later in 1947 an intense war over
Kashmir gave birth to the ceasefire line, now LoC. Partition coincided with the
worst communal violence almost everywhere outside Kashmir – in Muzaffarbad on
one side and Jammu on other side.
Take the case of Jammu,
the city of temples. According to 1941 census there were 4,31,362 people of
whom 1,70,789 were Muslims. In 1981 when the population had swelled to
9,43,395, there were only 40,309 Muslims. Against a percentage of 45.33 of
Muslims in Jammu region in 1931, it stood at 29.59 percent in 1981 census. This
indicates the magnitude of the people’s migration or their killing as is widely
believed.
The fleeing population
left property worth billions of rupees and the state government had to create a
department called the “custodian evacuee property” that looks after it. Though
the actual records of the Evacuees Property of 1950 has been spoiled by the
then government, the statistics following a survey in 1974 revealed that there
are 7989 houses, 655 shops at commercial sites, 21 garages, 1350 khokhas, 113
orchards and 1,53,608 kanals of agriculture and housing land.
At the time of partition,
non-Muslims from PaK areas and neighbouring Sialkote came fleeing creating a
refugee population. They were of two types: Displaced Persons (DP) who lived on
the other side of the LoC before partition in erstwhile J&K and Sharnarthis
(refugees) who came fleeing from Western Pakistan. Unlike DPs who are bona fide
state subjects, Sharnarthis do not enjoy the same rights. While they can cast
their vote for the Lok Sabha, they cannot vote for the state assembly.
No exact details are
available. But Revenue Ministry records suggest that of 31,619 families who
migrated from PaK 26, 319 stayed in J&K in 1947. Of them, 22,719 families
settled in rural and 3600 families in urban areas. From 1947 to mid-1950s,
according to former chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad (April 27, 2008 at Kathua)
land was given to these families at the rate of 32 kanals aabi (arable) or 48
kanals khushki (non arable) per family. For 4988 families who claimed they were
not compensated (1965-2000), the central government announced a Rs 50 crore
package.
Officials said 4745
families comprising 21,979 souls from West Pakistan are settled in different
areas of Jammu, Kathua, and Rajouri.
There were additional
migrations from either side of the LoC during the wars in 1965 and 1971. Not
many details are known. In Pakistan, Kashmiris are a different set of mohajirs.
They now constitute over 15 lakh population of Pakistan. Muzaffarabad’s
Rehabilitation and Relief ministry say they rehabilitated 9740 refugee families
from Kashmir that crossed over after 1965 war. Even though Kashmir was away
from 1971 war theatre 10,000 people are claimed to have reached PaK after the
fall of Dhaka.
Despite a couple of wars,
many floods, epidemics and a couple of limited droughts, the population did not
suffer a major change in the state. However, things altered significantly after
the rise of the militancy in 1989. Even police admits over 50,000 have been
slain since then. The NGOs operating in Kashmir and separatists claim the death
toll to be much higher.
There was massive migration. Human
Rights Watch in its report ‘With friends like these’ released in September
2006 about the state of civil liberties in PaK said the rehabilitation
officials informed it about presence of 29,932 registered refugees. The watchdog
estimated the presence of around 5000 unregistered Kashmiri refugees including
former militants.
Barring a few thousand
Kashmiri Pandits, the entire community lives out of Kashmir. State’s Relief
Commissioner at Jammu is taking care of the 38119 migrant families (including
2168 Muslim and 1748 Sikh families) in the temple city alone. Around 22000
families of Kashmiri Pandits living outside J&K are scattered across India.
The migration from the
countryside to Srinagar peaked during militancy. Though it is a routine for the
rural elite but it peaked during turmoil not for facilities but for security.
State government employees and professionals were the first to move leaving the
countryside almost without the average services in medical care and education.
No census operation,
however, is designed to offer the tragedies and travails of a society. It is a
number game that offers the broad basics of a trend in housing, education, work
participation and age. On that count, even the 2001 census that militants
opposed tooth and nail was not such a bad exercise. It, in fact negated a trend
that earlier censuses had build. It showed percentage of Muslims across J&K
growing and Hindus exhibiting a decline.
It was a mixed bag of
surprises. For the first time post-partition, percentage of Hindu and Sikh
population was shown on decline. Muslims and microscopic minorities like Jain
and Christians had improved their tally.
The 1981 census showed
Christians as the fastest growing community in J&K. In 20 years (1981-2001)
they exhibited phenomenal growth. Compared to 1981 when they were merely 0.14
percent of the total population with 8,481 souls, Christians were 20,299 strong
community in 2001 – 0.2 percent of the total. Earlier restricted to the twin
cities of Jammu and Srinagar, Christians this time were found across the state.
In Islamabad they had jumped from 36 to 290, in Pulwama from zero to 625, in
Baramulla from 106 to 527, in Kupwara from 19 to 545, in Poonch from 48 to 238
and in Srinagar 209 to 1529. With the highest literacy rate of 74.8 percent,
the community has exhibited a massive growth despite having a skewed sex ratio
– 594 female per thousand males among adults and 834 in children.
The 2001 census showed
percentage of Muslim population increase by 2.78 from 1981, and that of Hindus
decline by 2.62. The changes took place in a period of worst demographic
upheavals – massive deaths, migration, low growth rate and over-emphasis on
family planning, in predominantly Muslim belts across J&K. More questions
were raised than answers.
Even the distribution of
communities across Kashmir districts offered an interesting enigma. In Kupwara,
for instance, the 2001 headcount suggested there were 545 Christians, 208
Buddhists and 177 Jains. Since massive growth in Christians could be linked to
the efforts that various Western evangelists might be making but the population
of Buddhists and Jains makes the exercise doubtful. There were 217 Buddhists in
Kupwara in 1971 but not a single one in 1981. As for Jains they were traced
neither in 1971 nor in 1981 in the border district.
In neighbouring Baramulla
where the Buddhists population fell from 122 in 1971 to two males in 1981, the
2001 headcount suggests they exhibited a massive growth and their population
rose to 723. Their population in twin south Kashmir districts of Pulwama and
Islamabad exhibitsed the same trend. While 1981 census did not trace any of the
Buddhists in any of the two districts, their population stands at 172 in
Islamabad and 80 in Pulwama. No Jain lived in Rajouri and Islamabad in 1981 but
in 2001 their numbers stand at seven and nine, respectively.
As thousands of
enumerators are readying for field jobs, this time they have almost everybody
at their back. No threats and no problems. Can this exercise be clean?
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