Why
India needs to call Pakistan’s nuclear bluff once and for all
Terrorism and
veiled threats are used by it in an attempt to balance the asymmetry between
the two countries' armed forces.
In a statement issued last week,
Pakistan's National Security Advisor Sartaj Aziz said India shouldn't take his
country for granted. Pakistan, he added grimly, has nuclear weapons. Other
members of the Pakistani establishment have made similar statements in the
recent past. But as Pakistan's army chief General Raheel Sharif knows perfectly
well, Islamabad cannot use its nuclear stockpile - not even the small tactical
battlefield nuclear weapons Pakistan is developing.
The reason is simple: A retaliatory nuclear strike
by India would cripple Pakistan. The Americans know this. So do the Russians
and the British. And of course, so does Pakistan.
Farooq Abdullah, the former chief minister of Jammu and
Kashmir, had this to say about Sartaj Aziz's nuclear threat in an interview
with Sagarika Ghose in The Times of
India:
"When a senior diplomat, a former foreign minister,
talks about nuclear weapons, it's crazy. May I remind Sartaj Aziz about
Hiroshima and Nagasaki? Does he want to bomb J&K? India also has a
bomb. When I went to Pokhran after the tests were conducted, I remember
Vajpayee's words: 'He said we aren't the ones to use this first, we have
this as a deterrence, only to tell people don't take us for granted. We can
defend ourselves.' I want to tell Aziz don't think of the bomb because
innocents will die. Sartaj Aziz saab you too will die if the bomb falls."
So is Pakistan's nuclear threat mere bluster? The short
answer: yes.
In a recent article in the Indian Express, journalist Praveen Swami wrote why a
Pakistani nuclear reprisal to a conventional Indian military attack would
result in its annihilation: "Ever since Modi took power last year,
Pakistan has demanded negotiations, seeing them as a cushion against possible
Indian strikes in the face of a major terrorist attack. Large swathes of its
troops tied down in counter-insurgency duties, the Pakistan army would be hard
pressed to resist even a limited Indian push in areas like Kashmir's Neelam
Valley. Though Pakistan often threatens nuclear reprisal, it knows it would be
hard pressed to deliver on this threat in all but the most catastrophic
scenarios, for the simple reason that annihilation would follow in short order.
The truth is nuclear armed adversaries have engaged in small conventional wars:
China and Russia clashed on the Ussuri river in the 1950s, and India and
Pakistan themselves in 1999."
And yet, Pakistan continues to develop nuclear
warheads at a rapid pace. Recent reports suggest it will have over 300 nuclear
weapons within ten years - more than France or Britain. In a country
beset by home-produced terrorism, there is always the danger that some of the
small tactical nuclear weapons will fall into terrorists' hands and be used
against Pakistan itself. Rawalpindi has a secure nuclear command and control
centre. But breaching these safeguards by disgruntled elements with terrorist
links can't be ruled out.
A recently declassified Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)
document reveals that former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi mulled, before
abandoning, an air strike on Pakistan's nascent nuclear weapons programme in
1983. According to one report, Israel offered, "as late as 1984", to
bomb Pakistan's principal nuclear facility in Kahuta if India allowed "its
jets refueling assurance, but India demurred."
Terrorism - war by other means
Pakistan created the Taliban in the early-1990s.
Breakaway fractions of this terrorist group like the Tehreek-e-Taliban are
relentlessly targeting Pakistan's armed forces. December will mark the first
anniversary of the brutal Peshawar massacre. The Tehreek-e-Taliban murdered
over 130 Pakistani school children, mostly those from families in Pakistan's
armed forces. After years of battling these terrorists - terrorists the
Pakistani army has created and nurtured - they remain a serious threat. Over a
third of the Pakistani army is tied down fighting them and other militant
groups across the country.
Since the Narendra Modi government took office fifteen
months ago, Pakistan has tested its will with ceasefire violations across the Line
of Control (LoC) and the International Border (IB). In October and November 2014, the Border Security Force
(BSF) retaliated strongly to unprovoked Pakistani firing which caused several
Indian casualties. The retaliation resulted in a large number of Pakistani
fatalities as well.
The Pakistani army and the ISI have helped launch a
series of terrorist attacks on Indian soil. The same pattern has been repeated
over the past few days. The increased infiltration by militants trained in
terror camps on Pakistani territory has caused the deaths of Indian civilians,
including women and children. Two captured terrorists, Naveed and Sajjad, have
confessed under interrogation to being trained by the Lashkar-e-Taiba, the
terrorist group the Pakistani army nurtures with funding, training and
logistical support. Pakistan, which has never won a war against India
in 68 years, uses such proxy terror groups to wage a low-intensity conflict
without committing the Pakistani army to a war it cannot win. Terrorism and
veiled nuclear threats are used by Pakistan in an attempt to balance the
asymmetry between the two countries' armed forces.
Now to the myths
There are four myths in the India-Pakistan relationship
that the army, ISI and civilian leadership of Pakistan carefully nurse. They
need to be dispelled.
Myth 1: "Pakistan, like India, is also a victim of
terrorism."
Not true. Pakistan is the victim of its own terrorism;
India in sharp contrast is the victim of Pakistani terrorism. India doesn't
send terrorists across the border to kill Pakistani civilians. Pakistan does.
To equate the two is a standard manufactured response of the Pakistani
establishment - for instance, citing Indian involvement in Balochistan without
providing a shred of evidence.
The Pakistani army meanwhile continues to commit genocide
in Balochistan. It does not need India to spark an insurgency among the Baloch
- they have been fighting Pakistan's occupation of their country which
Rawalpindi forcibly annexed nearly a year after Independence. Remember:
Balochistan comprises 44 per cent of Pakistan's total land area.
Peter Tatchell, the human rights activist, writes:
"Balochistan was never part of the British Indian Empire. From 1876, it
was a self-governing British protectorate, with Britain pledging to guarantee
its security against external aggression. In August 1947, Britain granted
Balochistan independence separately from India and Pakistan as it did with
Nepal. This independence was short-lived. On April 1, 1948, Pakistan sent
troops to conquer the Baloch people. They have remained there ever since,
blanketing the country with hundreds of military garrison posts to suppress the
people."
Myth 2: "Jammu and Kashmir is disputed
territory."
It is, but not in the way Pakistan thinks. All United
Nations resolutions require Pakistan, as a first step, to vacate
Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Once Pakistan does, all issues related to
Jammu & Kashmir can be discussed. In short, PoK constitutes the core
dispute in relation to Jammu and Kashmir. All else flows from it. Thus when
engagement in the form of a composite dialogue resumes between India and
Pakistan, as External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj noted - and once Islamabad
adheres to the red lines drawn by New Delhi - Kashmir will be on the agenda,
beginning with PoK.
The soft, porous border proposal discussed between
General Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh nearly a decade
ago is a non-starter. If implemented, it will give terrorists a free pass to
Jammu and Kashmir. Over time Pakistan will occupy the entire state using a
"creeping" strategy. It is fortunate Musharraf was removed from
office before he could pull further wool over Dr Singh's eyes.
Myth 3: "Reciprocity."
India granted Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to
Pakistan in 1996. Pakistan promised reciprocal status several years ago. That
promise remains unfulfilled. If Islamabad continues to be in breach of that
commitment, India could consider withdrawal of MFN status to Pakistan. India is already moving ahead in the South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) without Pakistan in crucial
economic and diplomatic areas.
This ostracism could apply to other fields. Cricketing
ties, for example, will remain suspended. Can India really play cricket with a
country that sends terrorists to kill and maim Indian women and children?
Pakistan joined world cricket's boycott of South Africa's apartheid regime
throughout the 1970s and 1980s. The pressure - including a global boycott of
South Africa's all-white rugby team and other sanctions - led eventually to the
abolition of apartheid. Politics and sport should, ideally, not be mixed -
except in the case of extreme injustice, such as apartheid, or state-sponsored
terrorism.
Myth 4: "We are the same people".
We are not. Pakistan has over 190 million people: 90
million Punjabis, 45 million Sindhis, 30 million Pashtuns, 14 million Baloch,
and 11 million others. Punjabis dominate the army, civil service and business.
Indians are far more diverse - in language, culture and
religion. As the 2011 census reveals, India has nearly as many Muslims (172
million) as Pakistan - which is several times the number of Muslims India had
in 1947. Pakistan too had a significant minority (of Hindus) in 1947. Today
Hindus make up less than 1.6 per cent of Pakistan's population. In Pakistan,
the Baloch are butchered, Shias murdered, Ahmadis outcast.
No, we are not the same people.
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Trilateral Nuclear Proliferation: Pakistan’s Euro-Chinese Bomb
http://www.idsa.in/system/files/Monograph_No1.pdf
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