India’s anti ballistic missile defence shield
The
anti-ballistic missile defence shield has not only shifted the initiative of
launching a nuclear strike into India's hand but it has also brought the
initiative of introducing a conventional war into India’s hand
As if the list of trials
for Pakistan was already not long enough, another challenge has popped up. On
May 15, India successfully test fired its acclaimed, indigenous supersonic
interceptor missile as Advance Air Defence, which is a product of the missile
interception technology, to destroy an incoming hostile inter-continental
ballistic missile in mid-air in an endo-atmospheric (short range) altitude
(i.e. below 100 kilometres, within the earth’s atmosphere). After 11 failures,
this was the 12th test that finally yielded fruit for India. With that, in
South Asia, India heralded the era of constructing an anti-ballistic missile
defence shield to protect its air from the entry of any nuclear-armed ballistic
missile.
It was the Kargil war of
1999 that afforded India with an opportunity to make the US rethink its
policies towards South Asia, the region where two nuclear giants, India and
Pakistan, had locked horns with each other over the issue of Kashmir.
Reportedly, during the war, both India and Pakistan deployed their
nuclear-armed ballistic missiles (titled under various local names) against
each other in case a full-fledged war erupted. India became able to convince
the world, and especially the US that this time India was not only the victim
but also it was exposed to a military nuclear foray from Pakistan into its
controlled area. At that time, the preference of the world was to obviate a
nuclear war between the two embattled neighbours. The US asked India to
exercise restraint from launching any counter-offensive on Pakistan across the
Line of Control (LoC) or the international border, as India’s retaliation could
have spiralled the situation into a nuclear conflict with Pakistan not desired
by the US. India submitted to the request. In the post-war phase, when Pakistan
was celebrating its perceived victory over India, the US had been offering
India a 10-year defence pact called the New Framework for the US-India Defence
Relationship (NFDR). The pact was concluded between India and the US in July 2005.
The pact offered India the facility to acquire an anti-ballistic missile
defence system. The pact was not only an expression of strong US-India
bilateral ties — which were already in the process of consolidation in the
post-Cold War era — but it was also a signal for ending the practice of
offering Pakistan parity with India. With that, in South Asia, the balance of
power tilted in favour of India. Similarly, through taking the first step
towards developing the defence shield, India has enhanced its self-defence
ability. With that the balance in South Asia is disturbed.
The history of South Asia
depicts that here peace is enforced through the fear of nuclear strike.
Pakistan used nuclear deterrence to strike a balance with its nuclear neighbour
in South Asia. Nevertheless, for the time being — and though this method is
pregnant with self-destruction — Pakistan can value its doctrine of using
tactical nuclear weapons to be used on its own land (for a limited nuclear
strike) in case Pakistan’s any area is invaded by Indian army under the
Cold-Start Doctrine, which India adopted in 2004 to counter Pakistan’s
asymmetric wars through non-state actors from across the border. Reportedly,
F-16 fighter planes bought and flown by Pakistan are incapable of carrying a nuclear
weapon to drop in case war breaks out with India. The ballistic missiles
Pakistan developed somehow over the years are no doubt capable of carrying
nuclear warheads, but these missiles have now become useless against India,
which is on the itinerary of developing an anti-ballistic missile defence
shield along its border.
In this way, there are
certain implications for Pakistan regarding India’s anti-ballistic missile
defence shield. First, the defence shield has rendered the concept of minimum
credible nuclear deterrence — which Pakistan imposed on South Asia through
developing and testing its strategic nuclear weapons — insignificant. Secondly,
the defence shield has undermined Pakistan’s first nuclear strike competency or
option and instead, the defence shield has boosted or even restored India’s
second nuclear strike capability. Thirdly, the defence shield has relegated
Pakistan to taking refuge once again in its near-abandoned idea of looking for
strategic depth in Afghanistan. Fourth, the defence shield gives India some
space to maneouvre whenever Pakistan launches its alleged asymmetric war
against India. Fifth, the defence shield reinforces the numerical strength of
the Indian army and affects the future of Kashmir.
India’s anti-ballistic
missile defence shield poses another dimension of implications for Pakistan. It
is that Pakistan has to look for buying its own anti-ballistic missile defence
shield from the countries ready to sell it. The two nearest options to buy any
such technology could be China and Russia, though their quality of missile
interception technology may not be a match for that of the US. The third option
could be the US itself; however, prospects for this option are bleak because
the same US-India pact, the NFDR, allowed India to enter into a nuclear energy
deal with the US. The energy deal later matured in 2008 as the 123 Agreement.
Pakistan kept on agitating against the nuclear energy deal and requesting the
US to have one such deal with it too but to no avail. When the US has not paid
any heed to Pakistan’s requests on nuclear energy deal, it is obvious that the
US will not listen to Pakistan’s entreaties for providing it with the
anti-ballistic missile technology. Lately, the US has refused to subsidise
eight F-16 planes that Pakistan wanted to buy. Collectively, these points show
that Pakistan is currently not on the preference radar of the US.
In short, the
anti-ballistic missile defence shield has not only shifted the initiative of
launching a nuclear strike into India’s hand but it has also brought the
initiative of introducing a conventional war into India’s hand. Similarly, the
defence shield has not only reduced the options with Pakistan to launch an
asymmetric war with India but it has also brought Pakistan back to square one
where Pakistan has to fortify its defence afresh.
The writer is a freelance
columnist and can be reached at qaisarrashid@yahoo.com
http://dailytimes.com.pk/opinion/18-May-16/indias-anti-ballistic-missile-defence-shield
No comments:
Post a Comment