The strategic environment around Pakistan is evolving and
changing rapidly. Unfortunately Pakistan’s internal environment remains
unchanged and, if it is evolving, then so far there are no signs that it is
evolving in the right direction. So while the strategic environment warrants an
adjustment of foreign policy to take advantage of the changes or at least
remain in sync with them the domestic scene does not support such an effort.
Pakistan does not have a foreign minister and many embassies await ambassadors.
The world is moving on and it is doing so without Pakistan on board.
The elimination of the late
TTP leader and the fragmentation and in-fighting it caused should have been a
game changer for Pakistan and a spark for decisive action. Instead there were
endless discussions on martyrdom and, surprisingly, even divided opinion on
whether a friend or an enemy had been taken out. It was stated repeatedly that
the drone strike had scuttled a peace dialogue — a dialogue that had not even
started. The protests against US drone strikes have gained momentum and a
political party has taken upon itself the task of blocking NATO logistics
through Pakistan. Public opinion, already against the US, is being stoked to
new heights by political leaders seemingly unaware of ground realities. The
bottom line that will eventually prevail is that while Pakistan must strongly
protest drone strikes on its territory it must take advantage of the
consequences and keep in mind the economic compulsions that underpin its
foreign policy.
The Iran–US Intermediary
Nuclear Deal has altered the scenario. Israel protests because it has to for
political reasons. The Arab world that supports the Sunni faction of Islam
worldwide is silent so far and the reason is that they are realists and
understand that they have to now realign attitudes and policy in line with the
changing environment. There has been a surge in Sunni-Shia confrontation in the
wake of the ongoing war on terror and the violence in the Middle East. There
are fears that a resurgent Iran will support the Shia faction strongly as it
did after the US invaded first Afghanistan and then Iraq giving Iran a decided
advantage till the sanctions kicked in with real bite. Much will depend on how
both sides manage their policies in the future. Pakistan has excellent
relations with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf countries and Turkey. Iran is Pakistan’s
neighbor with a shared land border in its restive province of Baluchistan –the
scene of much external meddling. Pakistan should see a decided advantage in the
improving Iran-US relationship and Iran playing its role in the region. This
should shape a trend in foreign policy that leads to excellent bilateral
relations. A delay in the right overture could forfeit all likely advantages.
Pakistan needs Iranian political and energy support just at it needs the
support of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States.
The US-Afghanistan Bilateral
Security Agreement has been resoundingly approved by the Loye Jirga and,
President Karzai’s timeline notwithstanding, it is likely to become
operational. This will mean US troops presence in all the nine bases in
Afghanistan. Afghanistan will also need at least 4 billion dollars per year to
maintain its security forces. India, Iran, Central Asian States, Russia and
China all have their own interests and are likely to be supportive of the
US-Afghan alliance and the resulting environment. Should the peace efforts with
the Taliban fail and should the TTP continue its violence in Pakistan then
there will be a situation where the Taliban fighting in Afghanistan needs the
TTP and in return the TTP will expect support in their insurgency against the
Pakistani state. This scene will give a boost to militancy and terror within
Pakistan and beyond. There will inevitably be an opportunity for Russia and
China to assert themselves in pursuit of their interests and the states that
are not comfortable with the Iran-US thaw and US presence in Afghanistan may
look to them for improved relations. Pakistan needs to figure out how it wants
to respond to this evolving situation.
Pakistan faces new and
complex foreign policy changes. It needs internal stability and strength to
pursue its foreign policy interests. This is not the time to create internal
instabilities. This is the time for internal harmony so that the government can
govern.
No comments:
Post a Comment