India must not
waste time on Pakistan, 17 Jul 2014
When the Narendra Modi Government came to power, it was widely expected
that the traditional pusillanimity that has characterised India’s policy and
approach to the ‘international migraine’ on our Western border i.e. Pakistan,
would become a thing of the past. But a couple of months into the new
Government, there is a gnawing sense that this Government will also tread the
old, tired, beaten and desultory track of its predecessors. No, this isn’t
about the invitation to Nawaz Sharif (along with other South Asian heads of
state) for the swearing-in ceremony; nor is this about the shawl-sari
diplomacy. Those were diplomatic gestures that don’t, or shouldn’t, affect the
bigger game-plan or policy framework. What is worrisome are some other actions
that have, for now, set the amber lights flashing.
In what could well be the first Pakistan-specific Budgetary measure,
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has proposed “exemption from basic customs duty
(of 5 per cent) is being granted on re-gassified LNG for supply to Pakistan”.
The motivation for this measure was disclosed by Petroleum Minister Dharmendra
Pradhan who told a newspaper that “It’s an important project (LNG pipeline to
Pakistan) that will help improve bilateral diplomatic and economic ties
between the two neighbours (emphasis mine).” There are also reports of
India considering opening mobile telephony access to Pakistani SIM cards. We
also have the Vaidik circus in town which suggests that instead of using hard
options to crush terrorists, an effort will be undertaken to affect a change of
heart in the terrorists by drawing inspiration from the examples of Valmiki and
Angoolimaal. Even the RSS seems to have endorsed this initiative, otherwise why
else would Indresh Kumar hand out certificate of patriotism to VP Vaidik
(unless of course, this is a classic example of patriotism being the last
refuge of the scoundrel).
While Vaidik’s vacuity can and should be ignored (of course, if there is
even an iota of truth that a narcissist, loud mouth and self-promoting guy like
Vaidik was used either as an emissary or even a sounding board with Pakistan,
then we can safely predict that this Government will end up as a bigger
disaster than the Manmohan Singh Government) the Pradhan premise is what
suggests that this Government is going down the same path as its predecessors.
Quite clearly, the Modi Government seems to have fallen for the done-to-death
‘carrot and stick’ policy towards Pakistan. Briefly, this dubious policy’s
basis is that ‘carrots’ (LNG pipeline for example) should be offered to
Pakistan to incentivise it to change its behaviour; at the same time, a big
stick should be kept ready in case Pakistan steps out of line. This is
precisely the policy that countries like the US and UK have adopted, and a fat
lot of good it has done them. In fact, new research by American scholar
Christine Fair has blasted this nonsensical policy by arguing that far from
giving Pakistan an incentive to change its policy, this approach actually ends
up encouraging Pakistan to continue with its rank bad behaviour.
Until now, the way the ‘carrot and stick’ policy has played out is that
while India gave the carrots, Pakistan gave the stick. Perhaps, the Modi
Government has tweaked this policy and will try to restore the balance between
the carrot and stick (though there is as yet no sign that it has). The pipeline
proposal suggests that the new dispensation is thinking of tying in Pakistan
more closely with India and building solid economic leverages that can then be
used as sticks. If indeed this is the case, then it won’t be long before the
Modi Government has another thought coming its way. Aside from proving
Einstein’s definition of insanity – doing the same thing over and over again
and expecting a different result every time – this policy completely ignores
the ugly reality that no matter what goodies you give and no matter how closely
you tie Pakistan economically, that country remains unreconstructed and
unreformed in its hostility towards India.
The Modi Government would do well to recollect that until 1965, a huge
proportion of Pakistan’s foreign trade was with India, and yet that didn’t
prevent Pakistan from initiating the 1965 war. India also needs to learn from
the US experience – nearly $30 billion have been pumped into Pakistan since
9/11 and yet it wasn’t enough to dissuade the Pakistanis from their
double-games of playing both the Americans and the Taliban in pursuit of their
own strategic agenda. Even today, nothing has changed in terms of Pakistan’s
strategic calculus vis-à-vis India. And yet, if the Modi Government wants to
once again try and engage Pakistan ‘productively’ then chances are that once
again India will give the carrots and Pakistan will wield the stick. Even if
Pakistan doesn’t or cannot wield the stick, there will be little that the Modi
Government will have to show for its efforts or its carrots to Pakistan because
whatever else these carrots do, they are not going to effect a paradigm change
(which clearly the Modi Government is expecting or hoping) in Pakistan’s India
policy.
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article are the author's personal opinions. Information, facts or opinions
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