CPEC Will India Start War With Pakistan And China
Over It?
By Polina Tikhonova November
17, 2016
With China and Pakistan actively working on
the CPEC, the uptick of irresponsible propaganda pieces coming from politicians
and analysts – originating mostly from India – shows no sign of stopping.
India, Pakistan’s traditional rival,
has a number of issues with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which
is seen as a game-changer for Pakistan, China and Asia as a
whole. China and Pakistan’s cooperation on the project has sparked
numerous propaganda pieces throwing mud at the CPEC.
China’s embassy in Islamabad has already
slammed the rise of propaganda pieces directed at thwarting the CPEC, calling
the situation “really shameful.” As Beijing and Islamabad make huge progress on the CPEC, their close
cooperation continues proving anti-CPEC analysts wrong.
The CPEC is a 3,000-kilometer network
of roads, railways and pipelines that connects Kashgar and Gwadar, passing
through Pakistani regions disputed by India. India and Pakistan claim Kashmir
as their own territory and have already waged three wars over it. While the
recently re-ignited tensions over the region result in casualties almost every
day despite the ceasefire, some experts believe that India’s grievances over
the CPEC might lead to a direct military confrontation.
Anti-CPEC
propaganda pieces are wrong
Panos Mourdoukoutas, a contributor
for Forbes, believes that the anti-CPEC propaganda
is wrong. Mourdoukoutas argues that China has to either appease India or
“forget” about the CPEC project.
A number of Indian government
officials have expressed their concerns about the CPEC since the project was
announced more than three years ago. And while India, as alleged by Pakistan,
has made numerous attempts to disrupt the project, the chances that India might
actually start a war with China and Pakistan over the project remain zero.
In fact, former Indian Ambassador
Melkulangara Bhadrakumar said India would “lose heavily” if it remained opposed
and isolated from the CPEC. However, numerous Indian government officials
believe the CPEC is designed to undermine India’s position in the region and
see the project as a threat to India’s interests.
While that creates tensions between
China and Pakistan on one side and India on the other, authors of anti-CPEC
propaganda pieces seem unable to provide at least one legitimate reason as to
why India would go to war with China and Pakistan over the project.
China will protect the CPEC at all
costs, as the project is worth a whopping $46 billion and is a game-changer for
both China and Pakistan. Disrupting the project would mean a direct declaration
of war to China and Pakistan, and India knows it.
This past summer, the China
Institutes of Contemporary International Relations suggested that Beijing will
have “to get involved” if New Delhi attempts to disrupt the project.
China
is more attractive to investors than India
In his piece arguing that China is lagging
behind India in terms of investments, Mourdoukoutas provides data that suggests
India’s economic growth is set to outpace China. Although India currently
enjoys the rise of its economy, the country is becoming less attractive for
investors in the long run. The reason is because India is a “highly crowded trade,”
as said by Herald van der Linde, head of Asia Pacific equity strategy
for HSBC’s Asia Equity Insights Quarterly.
“High fund holdings, premium
valuations and slow pace of reforms make us reluctant to enter the market,” van
der Linde wrote, adding that India’s earnings growth expectations are also
slowing down.
Will
India go to war with China and Pakistan over the CPEC?
In his article, Mourdoukoutas also
suggests, “If pro-Indian forces in Pakistan sabotage China’s CPEC route,” China
should expect an open confrontation against India.
Mourdoukoutas also argues that this
is why Beijing “should either appease New Delhi or forget about CPEC
altogether.”
An open military confrontation
between the world’s two most populous countries is very unlikely, especially considering
the fact that India has already made several large-scale attempts to sabotage
the CPEC. Earlier this year, Pakistan alleged it had arrested a spy from
India’s RAW, Kulbhushan Yadav. Islamabad believes that Yadav is responsible for
hindering the implementation of CPEC projects in Pakistan’s Balochistan
province.
The scandal spurred numerous
high-ranking Pakistani officials to criticize India for its attempts to disrupt
the CPEC via espionage. In April, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff General Raheel
Sharif openly accused India’s primary foreign intelligence agency – RAW – of
attempting to disrupt the implementation of various CPEC projects.
International
players keen on investing in Pakistan
India has no hard evidence that would
suggest the CPEC is a direct threat to it. New Delhi wouldn’t get involved in a military confrontation over
nothing. And while India indeed has a lot to lose if it remains isolated
from the project, New Delhi wouldn’t get involved in the project as a matter of
principle, as India has territorial disputes with both China and Pakistan, the
co-creators of the lucrative project.
Although the project is still
underway, Pakistan is already becoming a place of high interest for investment
opportunities. Several countries, including Afghanistan, Russia and Kazakhstan,
are taking interest in investing in the CPEC.
On Thursday, Pakistani Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharif invited Turkish investors to benefit from the CPEC during a
Pak-Turk roundtable conference in Islamabad with Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan. Turkey and Pakistan are strengthening their economic ties, which is
why if Turkey invests in the CPEC, it would further expand their economic
relations and be beneficial for both countries.
France is also taking a huge interest
in Pakistan. The embassy head of France’s Regional Economic Department for
India and South Asia, Jean Marc Fenet, recently said that France views Pakistan
as a huge market for business.
CPEC
enables China to monitor Indian and American naval activities
There’s also a widespread theory
which suggests that thanks to the CPEC, the Gwadar seaport could turn into
China’s naval base in the Indian Ocean. Thus, China would be able to monitor
Indian and U.S. naval activities, which Beijing perceives as a threat to its
interests.
There are a number of other benefits
for China as well. Access to the Indian Ocean would also enable China’s
naval warships and merchant ships to bypass Malacca Strait. Thus, China
would be able to, once and for all, solve its Malacca Dilemma. Today about
80% of all oil from China is transported by ships from the
Strait of Malacca to Shanghai.
The distance between the two
destinations amounts to over 16,000 km, while it takes ships two to three
months to reach the destination. Having access to the Indian Ocean via Gwadar
would reduce that distance to less than 5,000 km.
The CPEC, which will link China with
nearly half of the world’s population, will also ensure safe passage of China’s
shipments through the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea.
Pakistan also has a lot to gain from
the project, as it’ll finally all ease its energy shortages. The project will
also bring greater cohesion in South Asia.
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