CPEC - Boon or Bane for Pakistan, By Hanan
Zaffar
The Diplomat November
16, 2016
A look at the hopes and fears surrounding the
ambitious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a
massive $46 billion bilateral developmental project between Pakistan and
China, is supposed to be a “game changer” in the geopolitics of South Asia.
This economic corridor aims to connect Kashgar in the northwestern Chinese
province of Xinjiang with Pakistan’s Gwadar port in Balochistan through a vast
and complex network of roads measuring 3,000 km as well as other infrastructure
projects. On paper the CPEC, intended to be completed by 2030, is a win-win for
both countries. China will save millions of dollars every year by shortening
its route for energy imports from the Middle East by about 12,000 km and
also gets greater access to the Indian Ocean. On the other hand, Pakistan
expects infrastructural enhancement and the reduction, or even
elimination, of its severe energy crisis by getting in return an estimated $34
billion for various hydro, solar, thermal, and wind-driven power plants.
The keenness of
Iran, Russia, and Saudi Arabia to be a part of CPEC in the future has added to
the mystique of the already highly hyped economic corridor. Astonishingly, the
least-publicized aspect of the agreement is a deal
for eight submarines to be supplied by China to Pakistan, which
considerably elevates Pakistan’s naval military strength.
Chinese interests
in Pakistan are not only economically driven. A fully operational Gwadar port
not only provides China with lucrative commercial benefits but also huge
strategic and geopolitical advantages. Although at present Gwadar is being
developed for commercial purposes only, there are huge chances for it to
develop into a well-equipped military naval base in the future, which
would provide China an enormous strategic advantage in the region. As Pakistan
is currently suffering from the worst kind of extremism, terrorism, and rampant
corruption, it not only intends to benefit economically from the project but
also improve its world image under the patronage of China.
However, Pakistan
must balance the expected benefits of CPEC with the potential negative
outcomes.
CPEC Gains
Economic and
Infrastructural Enhancement
CPEC offers
Pakistan an excellent opportunity to upgrade the basic infrastructure of all
provinces as the corridor essentially passes through the whole of Pakistan. New
roads, highways, railways, airports, and seaports are to be built and developed
according to the blueprint of this ambitious project. Provinces like Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, which lag far behind Punjab in terms of
development, are expected to get an infrastructural boost. In addition, a
fully functional corridor promises huge employment opportunities to all
sections of society. Proposed Chinese investments are supposed to increase
Pakistan’s $274 billion GDP by over 15 percent.
Overcoming the
Energy Crisis
Pakistan’s
stagnant economy has been a direct corollary of the endemic energy crisis. The
country badly fails to meet its energy demands and this long unsolved problem
shaves about 2 percent off GDP. Keeping this in view, CPEC will see
different power projects totaling 10,500 MW completed on a fast-track basis
through 2018. The energy aspect has been termed the biggest
breakthrough of the project. In one plan of particular note, 10 projects of
6,600 MW are to be developed in the Thar desert, which has the potential to
transform this highly remote area into Pakistan’s energy capital.
Freedom
From Over-reliance on the United States
Pakistan’s
over-reliance on the United States for strategic and financial purpose has not
served the country well. Despite being a close ally, Pakistan’s
relationship with the United States has hardly been what can be termed as
“cordial.” The general public in Pakistan feels betrayed by the chameleon
attitude Washington has shown toward them. The views are shared among political
circles too. CPEC provides Pakistan an opportunity to work closely with
seemingly a more reliable friend, China, independent of Western influence.
CPEC Risks
However, despite
the fact that CPEC provides Pakistan a huge economic opening, there are
apprehensions regarding the efficiency and economic feasibility of the
project. Moreover Pakistan faces various internal and external political
challenges which may hamper the progress of CPEC.
Threat to
Sovereignty?
Strangely, the
most ignored aspect of the CPEC is the presence of thousands of Chinese
security personnel in Pakistan, which have been deployed to
provide security to Chinese workers, officials, and engineers (in addition to
the security provided by Pakistan). The presence of foreign soldiers in such
huge numbers should be a cause of concern for the Pakistani establishment,
keeping in mind the alleged neo-imperialistic endeavors of China, especially in
Afghanistan. Furthermore many in Pakistan worry about the project being
used by China to exploit Pakistan’s vast natural resources, especially in
Balochistan, in the guise of developmental assistance.
Balochistan
Insurgency and Internal Conflicts.
Gwadar port in
Balochistan holds the key to the success of the corridor and Pakistan’s
ambition of becoming an economic stalwart in the region. However, increasing
calls in Balochistan for a separate state and the ensuing armed conflict
pose an enormous challenge to the corridor. Baloch nationalists oppose CPEC, as
it could potentially turn the demographic balance of the region against them.
Many people from other provinces of Pakistan could move to Balochistan and
settle there, if the corridor does become a success. Various Baloch rebel
groups have already attacked Chinese engineers and officials working on
different CPEC projects.
Many banned
terrorist organizations also pose a threat to the project as they seek ways to
settle scores with the Pakistani state. Plus, numerous political organizations
from provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh have voiced concerns over
changing the original plan of the corridor, which allegedly diverts the
economic benefits to Punjab province only. To add to the woes, Pakistan’s
strong military establishment also feels that it has a little say in the
project.
Indian Concerns
Ceaseless bad
blood between India and Pakistan has led to the ever-present sense of
precariousness and instability in the entire region. As the corridor passes
through Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan, which India claims
to be its own integral and indispensable territory, illegally held by Pakistan,
New Delhi has openly opposed CPEC. Pakistan has continuously accused India
of conspiring to disrupt the project by fueling the Baloch insurgency,
a claim vehemently contested by Indian state. Unhealthy Indo-Pak relations
cast shadows over the prospects of a peaceful and stable South Asia.
A prosperous South
Asia is possible only if both these militarily powerful countries shun their
ugly, stagnant political positions and work closely with each other. CPEC being
transformed into ICPEC by connecting it with Indian Punjab may be the first
step in this direction. However, this seems a mere fantasy in the present
context.
Hanan Zaffar is
assistant editor with weekly Heaven Times and a citizen journalist with Daily
Uqaab. Currently pursuing B.tech from National Institute of Technology
Srinagar, he has written extensively on the Kashmir conflict, social issues,
and sports.
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