ISIS next target is Jordan
JUNE 17, 2014
Iraqi
tribesmen gather in Baghdad to show their readiness to join Iraqi security
forces in the fight against militants on June 16. (Photo credit should
read AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP/Getty Images)
Summary
The
Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, buoyed by its recent successes in Iraq,
wants to expand its regional reach. Reports that Iraq has withdrawn forces from
western towns close to its 180-kilometer (110-mile) border with Jordan have left Amman
feeling vulnerable, and the Hashemite kingdom, certainly a target of interest
for the jihadist movement, has deployed additional security personnel along the
border.
However,
taking on Jordan would be tough for the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant.
The group has the ability to stage terrorist attacks in the country, but
significant constraints will prevent it from operating on the levels seen in
Iraq and Syria.
Analysis
The
June 15 edition of the Jordan Times reported that Amman had beefed up security
along its border with Iraq amid fears that the Islamic State in Iraq and the
Levant is inching toward the kingdom. Quoting unnamed Islamist sources, the
report added that the jihadist group had established a branch within the
kingdom as part of its plans to create a regional emirate.
The
militant group's intent to expand into Jordan follows the region's geopolitical
logic. After its push into Iraq, and already controlling significant swathes of Syrian
territory, the jihadist group can try to push into the Hashemite
kingdom from two directions. Jordan is the only opening available to Islamic
State in Iraq and the Levant -- the group cannot move north into Turkey, nor
could it move southwest into Lebanon. Even in Jordan, though, the group faces
considerable challenges.
For
starters, the Jordanian regime is far more stable than Syria or Iraq, and its
security forces have proved to be quite effective. Furthermore, Jordan has
strong backing from the United States and Saudi Arabia, especially since the
kingdom became a critical staging ground for support to Syrian rebels.
Washington and Riyadh can extend financial, intelligence and military
assistance to Amman. But Jordan is also a key sanctuary for rebels, and this
aids the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant's cause.
Jordan
has long had a substantial Salafist and jihadist presence. Since the start of
the civil war in Syria, jihadists have moved frequently across the Jordan-Syria
border. Amman has tried to crack down on this cross-border traffic, but it has
not brought it to a stop.
Jordan
is the native country of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the slain founder of the
organization that later became the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant.
However, the kingdom's jihadist landscape is currently dominated by forces that
oppose the group and are aligned with al Qaeda and its Syrian ally, Jabhat
al-Nusra. Though the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant has its own
supporters in Jordan, the best-known jihadist ideologues in the country --
people such as Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi and Abu Qatada -- have criticized the
group, especially its revolt against al Qaeda prime, creating dissension within jihadist ranks in
Syria.
The
Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant's jihadist opponents are dismayed by what
they see as the group's high-risk maneuvers, such as its mass killings of Shia
and its insistence on imposing austere Islamist laws in the areas it controls,
actions that risk alienating locals in a given country. In September, al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiriissued
guidance specifically addressing the issue, calling on jihadist fighters to
refrain from fighting sects, such as Shia, Ismailis, Qadianis and Sufis, unless
elements from those sects begin the fight. He similarly called for
noninterference with Christian, Sikh and Hindu communities living in Muslim
lands. He also ordered jihadists not to target noncombatant women and children
or fellow Muslims via explosions, killings, kidnappings or destruction of
property.
The
Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant openly rejected this call. The group's
predecessor, al Qaeda in Iraq, despite frictions with Jordan-based jihadists,
was able to stage attacks in the country, including suicide bombings in 2005
that targeted three Western hotels in Amman, and
the 2002 assassination of U.S. diplomat Lawrence Foley. Now that the group's
capabilities have dramatically expanded, it can certainly carry out attacks in
the kingdom if it chooses to do so. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant
will have to assess its current position, especially in light of its push into
Iraq, and decide whether it is in its interest to quickly begin operations in
Jordan, or whether it should wait until it has consolidated itself in Iraq and
weathered the counteroffensive from Shia and Kurds there.
The
Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant certainly will not want to alienate many
of its Iraqi Sunni partners who have sanctuary in Jordan. Sunni tribal forces
in Iraq would prefer that the group focus on that country and desist from any
action in Jordan that could trigger a strong reaction from Amman. It is unclear
how the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant will proceed. The key thing to
bear in mind is that while it can carry out terrorist attacks in Jordan, there
are too many constraints for the group to act in Jordan as it has in Syria and Iraq.
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