India - Recognizing
Pakistan’s Paradigm Shift, by Shairee Malhotra
India’s
new government must acknowledge the change in internal Pakistani politics, and
be innovative.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
invitation to leaders of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation
countries to attend his swearing-in ceremony has been termed a “foreign
policy masterstroke.” The highlight was arguably Pakistani Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif’s attendance, despite a delay in accepting the
invitation.
Modi’s BJP party has in the past
criticized the ex-UPA government’s Pakistan policy as too soft, and had vowed in the run-up to elections to take a tough stance against Pakistan. However, Indian leaders must
recognize the psychological underpinnings of the Pakistani state, which is
central to taming the famously fractious relationship.
Pakistan’s military has built the identity of
the Pakistani state in opposition to India, and this perpetuation
and sustainment of the Indian threat is what has made the Pakistan Army the
most powerful and omnipresent institution in its polity. This siege mentality
has legitimized its rule in the eyes of ordinary Pakistanis and enabled it to
extract the exorbitant funding and revenues that it does, consequently
derailing pro-democracy forces and civil society. The military’s unprecedented
monopoly over Pakistani politics, and the inflated revenue that the myth of the
Indian threat derives explains the lack of incentive for the army to better
relations with India.
While a tough line on Pakistan may
have been appropriate for New Delhi a few years ago, in recent years the state
of affairs seems to have somewhat altered. There is a growing realization in
Pakistan that India no longer poses the largest threat to the country, and in
this realization lies Pakistan’s greatest hope of becoming a “normal” country,
and not the dysfunctional security state that it currently is. The biggest
security risks are those stemming from within the country, and not from
external sources like India, a realization that frames the military as part of
the problem, rather than the solution. Perhaps nothing can better capture
Pakistan’s miscalculations and militancy culture than Mohsin Hamid’s
catchphrase, “To fight India, we fought ourselves.”
The Army itself is starting to see the
light; evident in its new doctrine’s shift in threat assessment, as militant groups
they once propelled turn against the state and attack its security apparatuses.
According to acclaimed Pakistani author Ahmed Rashid, “The
anti-India rhetoric that has been part of Pakistan’s entire make-up for over 50
years has now dramatically altered even within the army, which recognizes that
we have to deal with the Taliban threat.” Indeed, even Pakistan’s feared
Inter-Services Intelligence has acknowledged that
homegrown militants have surpassed India as Pakistan’s greatest threat.
Additionally, there is a growing
perception that engaging with India is an opportunity to resuscitate Pakistan’s
stagnant economy, as evident in Islamabad’s recent overtures to New Delhi on
liberalized trade deals, as well as its three-year economic reform agenda program with the IMF that emphasizes trade ties with India.
The new Indian government needs to
acknowledge this gradual and much-needed change in Pakistani mindset; and
adopting a tough posture towards Pakistan, something that many in India believe
to be imperative and long overdue, would be the wrong step for the new
government to take. Thus, Modi’s move to invite leaders of neighbouring
countries, including Nawaz Sharif, has been pragmatic and welcomed.
As Shekhar Gupta of the Indian Express concedes, “Many
Pakistan-watchers, particularly in India, allow our contempt, fear and distrust
of the Pakistani army to so cloud our judgment, we fail to see a fundamental,
and virtuous change.” Pakistan Punjab’s Chief Minister Najam Sethi stated in an interview with
CNN-IBN’s Karan Thapar, “The Pakistani Army no longer considers India to be an
existential threat. The paradigm in this country is changing and the sooner the
people of India and the Indian establishment realize this, the better it will
be for the peace process.”
“Getting tough” will not be a viable
approach to deal with a neighbor that has historically operated on the paranoia
premise that India’s prime aim is to destroy it. Jingoistic language and calls
for sterner belligerent action on the part of Indian leaders, even in the event
of a terrorist attack, are self-defeating; and risk a reversal of this welcomed
change in attitude in Pakistan. They will only exacerbate the situation and
play right into the hands of the Army, sustaining its ubiquitous status.
Suspension of talks should not be an option, as this will only satisfy
militants and Islamist hardliners that their destabilization tactics are
working. The new BJP government must accurately gauge the situation and envisage
the overall direction of its Pakistan policy, rather than respond to events in
an episodic and ad-hoc manner as the previous government did.
Pakistan is a complex country with
several centers of powers – the Army, the civilian establishment, the ISI,
religious groups, and extremist forces. Sharif’s delay in confirming his
presence at Modi’s ceremony, and the recent Taliban attack on the Indian consulate
in Herat, Afghanistan, demonstrate the complexities. India needs to be aware
that such activities will continue because several players in Pakistan are
averse to good relations with India. However, this must not stop the Modi
government from continuing to seek closer ties with a Pakistan that is growing
out of its existential negative perception of India.
India-Pakistan relations are at a
pivotal point in history. As India experiences a change of guard in New Delhi,
the first Pakistan government to experience a transfer of power from one
civilian regime to another is marking a year in office. The timing is good for
the bilateral relationship to move beyond conventional differences, and
capitalize on the enormous economic potential of the relationship. India must
adopt a constructive and robust, rather than belligerent and reckless, approach
to Pakistan, especially in light of this progressive narrative change in
internal Pakistani politics. It must be innovative in “normalizing” its
relations with Pakistan and review other tactics, including collaborative
attempts with other states to diplomatically pressure and stabilize Pakistan,
support for civilian structures and accelerated economic engagement. Under the
leadership of an assertive and dynamic Modi, India is now well positioned to
take these steps.
Shairee Malhotra works at Gateway
House: Indian Council on Global Relations in Mumbai, India. She has an MA in
International Relations from Queen Mary, University of London.
http://thediplomat.com/2014/06/india-recognizing-pakistans-paradigm-shift/
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