If Trump attacks Iran. Dr Shabir Choudhry, 13 January 2026, London.

 If Trump attacks Iran

Dr Shabir Choudhry, 13 January 2026, London.

Regional Implications

Middle East explodes outward:

·       Hezbollah escalates against Israel

·       Houthis intensify Red Sea attacks

·       Iraq and Syria become active war theatres

Oil shock: Strait of Hormuz disruption sends global energy prices soaring, which will surely affect the economies of many countries and, of course, add to the problems of the people.

Arab regimes trapped:

The rulers of the Arab world have closer ties with America, and at no time would they like to annoy Washington.

The attack on Iran will upset the public opinion of the region, resulting in protests and anti-American sentiments. The public would like their countries to support Iran and oppose America, or at least distance themselves from Washington, despite security dependence.

Israel fully mobilised: Risk of a multi-front war becomes real, which will create more security problems for Israel. This would add to the anger and frustration of those Israelis who wish to have peace in the region. Thousands of Israelis have already left Israel and moved to safer places in America and Europe, and this may expedite the trend.

Implications for Russia

• Energy windfall: Higher oil prices directly benefit Moscow.
• Iran–Russia strategic deepening: Arms, intelligence, and drone cooperation expand.
• Ukraine’s advantage: Western attention and resources are diverted.
• Diplomatic positioning: Russia presents itself as a stabiliser and mediator.

Implications for China

• Major energy vulnerability: China depends heavily on Gulf oil; instability hurts Beijing.
• Strategic dilemma:
• Publicly condemns US action
• Quietly pressures Iran to avoid total war
• Yuan-based oil trade expands: China pushes alternatives to dollar pricing amid chaos.
• Global South leadership claim: China frames itself as the responsible great power. A clear alternative to America which has systematically attacked dozens of countries since the Second World war.

Overall Assessment

A US attack on Iran would:

• Seriously damage Iran’s nuclear capability
• Not eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability permanently because of the safety system they have in place
• Accelerate regional militarisation
• Strengthen Russia economically
• Undermine US standing across the Global South

It would be a strategic own goal unless followed by a long, costly occupation, which the US public would not support.

3/ Britain and France send troops to Ukraine

Economic Implications

• High cost, low scalability: Sustaining troops would have serious economic implications; already, budgets are under pressure. This will result in unrest and political costs.

 

• Defence industry boost: Arms production and logistics contracts surge.
• Some people will get richer, but the people as whole will suffer
• Market instability: Risk premiums rise across Europe due to escalation fears.

Political Implications

Domestic backlash:

·       UK: Parliamentary resistance and public war fatigue

 

·       France: Street protests and constitutional pressure

 

·       EU division: Eastern states may welcome it; southern and neutral states oppose it.

• US tension: If done without Washington’s backing, this fractures NATO command unity.

Strategic Implications

• Tripwire effect: Any Russian strike killing British or French troops risks a NATO-Russia war.
• Deterrence vs escalation paradox:
• Intended to deter Russia
• Increases the likelihood of miscalculation
• Russia’s response:
• Intensified strikes
• Hybrid attacks on Europe
• Nuclear signalling escalates

Overall Assessment

Anglo-French troop deployment would:

• Raise the stakes dramatically
• Shift the war from proxy to quasi-direct NATO involvement
• Reduce diplomatic off-ramps

It would be the most dangerous escalation since February 2022.

Final Strategic Amalgamation

If all three scenarios occur in some form:

• The post-1945 order collapses
• Power politics fully replaces rules
• Middle powers hedge, rearm, and regionalise security
• Kashmir, Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Middle East all become more volatile

This is the world of unchecked great-power opportunism, not stability. END