If Trump Takes Over Greenland: Implications for South Asia and Kashmir Dr Shabir Choudhry, 14 January 2026, London

 If Trump Takes Over Greenland: Implications for South Asia and Kashmir

Dr Shabir Choudhry, 14 January 2026, London

1. Collapse of Moral Constraints on Power Politics

A US seizure of Greenland would shatter the last pretence of a rules-based international order.

For South Asia, this matters profoundly because:

• India and Pakistan have long been constrained (at least rhetorically) by:
• International law
• UN resolutions
• Fear of Western diplomatic backlash

Once the US openly violates the territorial sovereignty of a NATO ally, legal and moral restraints elsewhere weaken dramatically.

Kashmir implication:

India would feel emboldened to argue:

“If great powers can redraw borders by force, why should Kashmir be treated differently?”

 

Pakistan, too, would lose its strongest moral argument against unilateral actions.

2. India’s Strategic Calculus Hardens

India already frames Kashmir as:

• An “internal matter”
• A fait accompli after August 2019

A Greenland precedent would:

• Reinforce realist thinking in New Delhi
• Reduce concern for Western criticism, especially from the US
• Strengthen India’s belief that power, not legality, settles disputes

India could:

• Accelerate demographic engineering in Kashmir
• Push irreversible administrative integration
• Argue that territorial consolidation is now the global norm

Key shift:

Kashmir moves from disputed territory to a managed security zone in India’s strategy.

3. Pakistan’s Position Weakens Further (Despite Rhetoric)

Pakistan traditionally relies on:

• International law
• UN frameworks
• Western moral pressure
• China’s support

But after Greenland:

• These instruments lose credibility
• Western criticism of India becomes selective and hollow

Pakistan would face a dilemma:

• Escalation risks further isolation
• Restraint risks permanent loss of leverage

This increases Pakistan’s dependence on:

• China
• Islamic symbolism
• Rhetorical posturing rather than effective diplomacy

For Kashmiris, this is dangerous:

• Their cause becomes more marginal
• Reduced to a bargaining chip in larger power games

4. China’s Posture in South Asia Hardens

China would interpret a US takeover of Greenland as:

• Proof that territorial revisionism by great powers is acceptable
• Confirmation that restraint is a weakness, not a virtue

Consequences:

• Stronger Chinese backing for Pakistan—not out of principle, but leverage
• More assertive Chinese behaviour in:
• Ladakh
• Arunachal Pradesh
• Gilgit-Baltistan infrastructure

China could frame its actions as:

“Defensive responses to a lawless international system”

Kashmir becomes entangled further in the US-China rivalry, reducing Kashmiri support.

5. End of Internationalisation of Kashmir (in Practice)

After Greenland:

• The UN system loses whatever residual authority it had
• Western states lose credibility as neutral arbiters

Kashmir would:

• No longer be seen as a “dispute to be resolved”
• Be treated as a frozen outcome to be managed

This is catastrophic for:

• Self-determination
• Human rights advocacy
• International mediation

The issue survives only:

• In diaspora politics
• In regional instability
• In periodic crises, no resolution

6. Increased Risk of South Asian Militarisation

A world where:

• Borders are changed by force
• Might defines legitimacy

…is a world where deterrence replaces diplomacy.

In South Asia:

• Arms races intensify
• Nuclear signalling becomes more frequent
• Crisis management becomes more dangerous

Kashmir remains the most likely flashpoint for:

• Miscalculation
• Escalation
• Proxy violence

7. Kashmiris Lose the Most

Perhaps the most important point.

A Greenland takeover would:

• Empower states
• Marginalise peoples

For Kashmiris:

• Their struggle is reframed as “obsolete”
• Rights are subordinated to strategic convenience
• International sympathy declines, not increases

In a multipolar disorder:

Peoples without states suffer most.

 

Strategic Summary (South Asia & Kashmir)

If the US takes Greenland by force:

• International law collapses as a usable shield
• India’s hand in Kashmir strengthens
• Pakistan’s diplomatic tools weaken
• China’s leverage in South Asia grows
• Kashmir is further de-internationalised
• Risk of militarised crises increases
• Kashmiri self-determination is pushed further into obscurity

One Sentence Conclusion (in your intellectual register)

A US takeover of Greenland would not merely destabilise Europe; it would legitimise territorial coercion globally, harden India’s position in Kashmir, hollow out Pakistan’s diplomatic claims, and push the Kashmiri people even further to the margins of a lawless multipolar order.