UAE and India agreements and their impact on South Asia and the Middle East. Dr Shabir Choudhry, 20 January 2026.

 UAE and India agreements and their impact on South Asia and the Middle East. Dr Shabir Choudhry, 20 January 2026.

The brief but highly substantive visit of UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed to India signals a strategic deepening of India–Gulf relations at a time of exceptional regional volatility. Its implications extend well beyond bilateral ties and will be felt across South Asia, the Middle East, and adjacent geopolitical theatres.

1. Strategic Realignment in the Middle East

The UAE–India partnership reflects a quiet but decisive shift in Gulf geopolitics:

·       The UAE is diversifying its strategic partnerships beyond traditional reliance on the United States.

 

·       India is emerging as a trusted, non-ideological partner—economically powerful, politically stable, and militarily capable without being overtly interventionist.

 

·       This strengthens a new axis: UAE–India (with Israel in the background through the Abraham Accords), reshaping West Asian power equations.

This alignment reduces the space for Pakistan’s traditional diplomatic leverage in the Gulf, which historically rested on religious affinity rather than economic or technological value.

2. Implications for Pakistan and South Asia

a. Pakistan’s Strategic Marginalisation

·       The UAE’s expanding defence, nuclear, and space cooperation with India highlights Pakistan’s declining relevance in Gulf strategic thinking.

 

·       Gulf states increasingly prioritise economic stability and technological partnership over ideological or religious solidarity.

• Pakistan’s internal instability, economic dependence, and militant legacy contrast sharply with India’s market size and predictability.

This does not mean hostility toward Pakistan, but it does mean reduced strategic indulgence.

b. Kashmir Narrative Weakens Further

·       The UAE has already demonstrated reluctance to internationalise Kashmir.

 

·       Closer UAE–India relations further dilute Pakistan’s ability to mobilise Gulf support on Kashmir.

 

·       Gulf capitals now see Kashmir primarily as a bilateral India–Pakistan issue, not a pan-Islamic cause.

3. Energy and Economic Consequences for South Asia

·       India securing long-term LNG supplies from the UAE strengthens its energy security, insulating it from Middle Eastern shocks.

 

·       This enhances India’s economic resilience relative to Pakistan, which remains energy-vulnerable and debt-dependent.

• The proposed $200 billion trade target by 2032 positions India as a central economic node linking South Asia to the Gulf.

This could gradually transform India into the economic gateway between the Middle East and South Asia.

4. Iran Factor: Strategic Balancing, Not Confrontation

·       Both India and the UAE maintain important ties with Iran but are increasingly constrained by US sanctions and regional instability.

The UAE–India coordination allows both to hedge:

·       Maintaining limited engagement with Iran

·       While reducing over-dependence on Tehran

• For Iran, this is a warning sign of strategic isolation, particularly if Gulf states quietly align with India, Israel, and Western interests.

However, neither India nor the UAE seeks open confrontation with Iran.

5. Gaza, Yemen, and Regional Conflict Management

·       The discussions on Gaza and Yemen indicate India’s growing diplomatic footprint in West Asian conflict management.

 

·       India’s invitation to Trump’s proposed “Board of Peace” reflects its new image as a responsible global stakeholder, even if New Delhi remains cautious.

• UAE–India coordination may encourage pragmatic de-escalation, not ideological positioning.

This marks a shift from emotional politics to transactional diplomacy.

6. Decline of Ideological Politics in the Muslim World

One of the most significant long-term impacts is ideological:

·       Gulf states are moving away from political Islam and jihad-centric narratives.

 

·       Security, trade, technology, and stability now define partnerships.

• India, despite being a Hindu-majority state, is treated as a legitimate and valued partner, undermining claims that global politics is driven by religious blocs.

This shift directly challenges narratives promoted by extremist groups and some state actors in South Asia.

7. Strategic Message to the United States and China

·       For Washington, UAE–India ties align broadly with US interests but also show Gulf states asserting greater autonomy.

 

·       For China, India’s growing role in the Gulf counters Beijing’s Belt and Road influence and complicates China–Pakistan strategic designs.

South Asia is no longer a peripheral theatre—it is increasingly linked to Middle Eastern stability.

Conclusion

The UAE President’s visit to India is not ceremonial. It represents:

• A recalibration of Middle Eastern alliances
• India’s rise as a key West Asian partner
• Pakistan’s relative diplomatic decline
• The erosion of theology-driven geopolitics
• A move toward a pragmatic, economy-first regional order

For South Asia and the Middle East alike, this signals a future shaped less by slogans and more by power, stability, and strategic value.

Dr Shabir Choudhry is a London-based political analyst, author, and expert on South Asian affairs, with a focus on Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Kashmir. Email: drshabirchoudhry@gmail.com