Pakistan has been once
again gripped by the domestic political crisis. Country’s fragile democracy is
facing serious threats as cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan, chairman of
Pakistan Movement for Justice party, and Sunni cleric Tahir-ul-Qadri, head of
Pakistan People’s Movement party, along with their supporters, armed with clubs
and batons, continue to paralyze the capital city, Islamabad, for more than
three weeks.
Protesters
led by Imran Khan, who believes that Nawaz Sharif is corrupt and became prime
minister after rigging the May 2013 elections, and Tahir-ul-Qadri, who aims to
abolish the current parliamentary form of political system and bring
“revolution” in the country, have occupied the sensitive area of the capital
city, bringing the normal diplomatic activities at a complete standstill. They
are demanding nothing less than resignation of elected Prime Minister Nawaz
Sharif.
Sharif was elected prime
minister in June last year, marking the first-ever smooth transition of power
from one elected civilian government to another in coup-prone Pakistan. It
seemed that country’s powerful military which has always enjoyed complete
control over the national security and foreign policies is retreating and
civilian leadership is gaining power. Soon after assuming the office, Sharif
started work on his popular agenda- economic development, normalizing relations
with India and and dialogue with the Taliban to resolve the decade-old
militancy phenomenon.
Sharif’s pursuit of national policies without taking military into confidence
backfired, resulting in civil-military tensions. Ongoing protests apparently
seem a conspiracy orchestrated by the military to undermine the authority of
Nawaz Sharif, who has challenged the overwhelming role of the military in the
formulation of national security and foreign policies.This is not the first
time that the army has hatched a plot against an elected government. In
Pakistan’s 67 years turbulent history, military has overthrown elected
governments three times and has directly ruled the country for more than half
period.
The
military is also annoyed over the treason trail of ex-army dictator General
Pervez Musharraf, who ousted Nawaz Sharif in a bloodless military coup in 1999.
It sees the treason case as an act of personal vendetta, and an attempt to
start the accountability of Generals and undermine their dignity.
Unsurprisingly,
the conspiracy to weaken the Sharif government has been exposed. Imran Khan
party’s dissident leader Javed Hashmi has publicly revealed the secret contacts
between the military and protesters, calling the protests as a “scripted plan”
choreographed by the Inter-Services Intelligence, military’s premier spy
agency.
In
order to save the democratic set-up from complete collapse, eleven political
parties inside the parliament have rallied together against the illegitimate
and undemocratic demands of protesters. The parliament has passed resolutions
affirming the supremacy of the Constitution and democracy, along with
condemning the protests. Support to democracy by the civil society, journalists
and lawyers has also relieved pressure on the government.
It
is, however, highly unlikely that the widespread support to the civilian
government will deter military from intervention in political affairs. The army
may not undertake an overt coup, as it understands that the situation is not
ripe for a coup, but it will continue to control, and check powers of, the
elected government.
With the unfolding of recent political crisis, hopes for the consolidation of
democracy and tilting of power from the military to the elected authorities
have been dashed. The army has successfully regained the so-called supremacy
over the civilians by clipping the wings of Nawaz Sharif, as evident from his
request to Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif for the ‘mediation’
between the government and protesters.
And
it appears that Nawaz Sharif has conceded power to the army. From now on, the
military will have greater control over major issues like relations with
arch-rival India, Afghanistan and the United States and the internal security
policy, including the ongoing war against the Pakistani Taliban. Legal
arrangements are being made to allow Musharraf to move abroad.
Ongoing
political turmoil has triggered a huge economic losses. Economy has lost $4.5
billion since the start of the protests. The International Monetary Fund has
postponed talks with the government, delaying the next tranche of the loan to
the country. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Islamabad has also been
postponed. He was to sign investment agreements worth $34 billion with Nawaz
Sharif.
It
appears that the protests will end in the coming weeks and Nawaz Sharif will
remain in office, serving as an impotent chief executive with little say in
major issues. As the military has emerged triumphant in this battle, democracy
is the ultimate loser.
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